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Compressor industry profit or limited

Font Size: [Big][Mid][Small] 2014-11-2    Views: 1099    

China refrigeration and air conditioning industry is regarded as a industry is a legendary and crazy, actually in the compressor industry behind the refrigeration and air conditioning industry, not dull, refrigeration and air conditioning industry is also an industry full of passion and impulse. Although the first half of 2014 China's real estate and into a new downturn, but the refrigeration and air conditioning and compressor industry is still hot.

Compressor industry not only production scheduling in the first half of 2014 engaged in production, production and sales continued to grow, and many manufacturers and capacity expansion impulse, many new project start or rolled off the production of new products. Coming events cast their shadows before markets seemed to feel that many in the industry are deeply concerned about this.

The contradiction between supply and demand began to emerge

In the second half of 2013 to the first half of 2014, it is more comfortable days Chinese compressor industry. In fact, the compressor industry life comfortable benefited from two aspects:

On the one hand, in the second half of 2013, domestic air conditioning industry inventory is the least amount of time, in recent years with the industry to better market expectations, inventory has become an important power compressor demand. Merchants from channel fill inventory to fill the whole machine manufacturer, has been conducting the industry chain upstream, contributed to the prosperity of the compressor industry.

On the other hand, China's real estate in 2013 appeared a peak, quantity and price of the real estate market active performance not only boost the air-conditioning demand at that time, and the lag of air conditioning demand, make no matter in the first half of 2014 household air conditioner and central air conditioning, there were different from other household appliances or equipment growth momentum.

Data show that 1, June 2014, associated with real estate larger household air-conditioning terminal sales rose 6.6%, more than online rose 11.77% year-on-year, ChanYuanJi year-on-year growth of 10.81%. The rotary compressor and compressor industry production increased by 8% over last year, on the surface is a basic balance between supply and demand.

The problem is that in the first half of the compressor is the equilibrium of supply and demand on the surface, but don't forget the two problems, first of all, in the process of an inventory, because optimistic about market prospects, both air conditioning manufacturers and distributors, an inventory are positive, to the manufacturer a new inventory; Second, the peak season in 2014 does not appear to stimulate consumption air conditioning of extreme weather conditions, the peak season after the manufacturer's inventory and reached a record high.

At present, the total output of the compressor industry can be is close to or even more than 200 million units, has been in a state of excess capacity. From now, home air conditioning market expectations for the big increase in risk is not big, again to maintain steady growth of the industry is a big probability event. Even if the industry usher in a new round of growth, improve capacity utilization, play to the existing production capacity, also basic can meet the demand of industry. Although central air conditioning is still in the high growth, but the central air conditioning can't like household air conditioner at millions of units. Central air conditioning model the characteristics of the large number of less, decided the central air conditioning to seen explosive growth in demand.

Therefore, starting from the second half, compressor industry will encounter the plight of weak demand, manufacturers will be faced with two choices, one is the production of the holiday, waiting for the market to digest inventory; Second, active structural adjustment, put some production line use time longer in in succession. Rest or industry enterprises the best choice.

However, from the manufacturer, or looking forward to the market weakening, needs to keep stable. Reported that more than half of the factory production put a week to 10 days in August holidays, not as they often have a holiday for a month. Most manufacturers are still not to take comprehensive measures to the holiday, but by rotation shutdown overhaul to limit the capacity of production line.

Scroll compressor are expanding production

Industry is generally believed that rotary compressor companies involved in production of vortex compressor, there are two aspects: on the one hand, is relatively good profit space, the vortex compressor vortex compressor, after all, higher technology content, not all companies can be involved in, thus to maintain a relatively high profit levels; On the other hand scroll compressor are generally bullish market outlook, particularly to high-end refrigeration and air conditioning industry transformation, provides the vortex compressor outlet, vortex compressor industry think growth has been open.

Mitsubishi imported from Thailand mitsubishi electric vortex compressor production line in guangzhou, last year started mass production, 500000 the design of the basic capacity can reach 2014. Mitsubishi electric says Thailand mitsubishi electric vortex compressor production line models mature, need not again matches, can be directly supply market, and almost all of the products are dc frequency conversion machine.

Gree holding a ling of annual output of 500000 sets of horse vortex compressor production line. Reported that as early as three or four years ago the ling of start the pilot production of scroll compressor, to the rhythm of the nissan 30 supplies market, after can ensure product stability and advanced production process, production line will start formal construction. Early vortex compressor production capacity to 100000 units, the design output to 500000 units, the early production is given priority to with 5 HP model, with constant speed with frequency conversion two products.

In addition to the above two companies, the sea of scroll compressor is popularized in strength, guangzhou Hitachi also will scroll compressor expansion to 900000 units, Emerson expansion plan is also on the agenda, dalian sanyo horse vortex compressor recently also will be implemented. If a new vortex compressor production line capacity release, scroll compressor of 1 million sets of Chinese market means that the short term market space, will bear the extrusion of nearly 4 million sets of production capacity, market competition will become more intense.

But since 2014, high-power vortex compressor on the market, rotary compressor enterprise almost consistency will focus on strategic breakthrough large rotary compressor, the goal is to take 5 ~ 10 HP vortex compressor market. Learned, in rotary compressor companies to solve the high power dc rotating compressor after many problems of frequency conversion technology, thought the existing 5 ~ 10 HP light commercial market has opened the door to the rotary compressor, high-power rotary compressor is expected to gradually expand the replacement rate of scroll compressor.

On the one hand, high-power rotary compressor in have more advantages compared with the cost of vortex of energy efficiency products; Rotary compressor, on the other hand, in the field of below 7 HP has good adaptability. So some ChanYuanJi, small online products will be to form a complete set of purchasing rotary compressor. In the past two years, small household central air-conditioning market achieved high growth, thus promote the power of rotary compressor surge.

The data also show that high power rotary compressor has developed rapidly. Relevant data show that in the first half of 2014, more than 3 HP and rotary compressor by close to 35%, among them more than 3 HP rotary compressor is as high as 130%. The industry of this phenomenon to cause enough attention, adjust strategy may also not too late.

Profit will be subjected to the test

Whether an industry healthy development, the most important indicator is the profitability of the enterprise. Since the second half of 2013, benefited from the steady growth of refrigeration and air conditioning industry, compressor industry profitability is more smoothly, and neither the sharp decline in profitability in the bitter competition, also did not appear profits soared because of the increased demand.

Sea state shares of listed companies, for example, mid-term report in mid - 2014, earnings per share 0.10 yuan, compared with $0.09 a year earlier, the growth of only 0.01 yuan, the growth rate of 11.11%, is a relatively steady performance, does not come as a surprise to the market's expectations.

In the case of this year, several factors influencing the compressor industry profitability under several aspects. On the positive side, (1) the refrigeration and air conditioning industry sales growth, increasing demand for supporting the compressor industry. Data show that in the first half of the household air conditioning sales rose 3.8% year-on-year, the central air conditioning sales up 8.8% from a year earlier. (2) the main raw materials for compressor copper, steel prices have been falling, reduces the manufacturing cost of the compressor. Domestic copper prices, for example, in June 2013, 54000 yuan/ton, in March 2014 in recent years, the lowest price 44000 yuan/tons, in June 2014, rose to 50000 yuan/ton, still fell by about 10% over the previous year.

From the negative side, the biggest disadvantage lies in the capacity of domestic compressor industry is greater than demand, excess capacity will inevitably cause price competition, which hit the profitability of the enterprise. According to the relevant data analysis, the domestic compressor capacity is around 200 million units, from the demand, the domestic household air-conditioning sales, domestic central air-conditioning sales, export, refrigeration and air conditioning compressor will not be needed for more than a total of 120 million units. Under the background of oversupply, the compressor where corporate profits can good?

Pose a threat to profitability is there another one, is the compressor manufacturers products across borders. According to a long-term tracking of compressor market professionals said that 10 years ago, the domestic compressor manufacturer product distribution clear, Shanghai Hitachi, guangdong beauty cheese, zhuhai ling da, huarun sanyo is produce below 3 HP home air conditioning compressor, Hitachi, xi 'an and guangzhou keian, dalian sanyo, danfoss is more than 3 HP commercial air conditioning compressor. But now the boundaries and tacit understanding has been broken, compression factory competition in order to broaden the product line in succession, the lack of which model is on the model, the extended type type to earn money, led to today's category a serious excess capacity.

Research shows that in July, 2014, 5 HP model of R22 constant speed single prices have dropped to 1000 yuan the following, almost broke the record low. In this price level, the enterprise will have how much profit space? Thankfully, however, compressor industry upstream raw materials have been low in recent years, copper, steel are historically low levels, the cost of the compressor industry pressure may ease the pressure on profits.